General Situation // Scottish Ski & Winter Activity Report // Winterhighland

Storm Chandra has been named by the Met Office and widely Storm Force winds are expected for Highland mountains during Tuesday, Hurricane Force on higher tops and prone areas with sustained winds potentially exceeding 80mph for a time. Combined with heavy snow blizzard conditions are expected with persistent whiteout at higher elevations. The Yellow Warning has up to 20cm of snow at 500m (below the lower slopes) and states: Substantially more snow may accumulate over the mountains!

CairnGorm will not attempt to operate any uplift on Tuesday, whether Daylodge opens will depend on visibility and road status. At time of update the Glenmore Gates were closed. While the A939 Lecht Pass and A93 Cairnwell Pass were open, though the later has a covering of snow and is experiencing both falling and drifting snow. Check www.snowgatecameras.co.uk AM as both passes may close overnight.

Glenshee is projected to see the most snow of the snowsports areas, with Glencoe or the Lecht vying for second spot, exact wind direction could affect that. CairnGorm on the face of it does not look like seeing as much as the SE Cairngorms, but you have to factor in the huge wind transportation from the SE that will shift volumes of snow into the Northern Corries!

Uplift at Glenshee or the Lecht may depend as much on road visibility and drifting as actual wind speed, SE winds can funnel through the Lecht Pass though and while parts of Glenshee have a degree of shelter from SE winds there are limits. Similarly at Glencoe, while SE is the favoured direction for least impact there, Glencoe will be in the strongest upper level wind field, the balance of probabilities is the cross wind will be too high for the Access Chair.

Certainly check updates AM if not before travelling on route to minimise wasted travel. It looks a much better option to hold off till Wednesday, as Storm Chandra is one of a pair of deep lows, they will rotate round each other, causing Chandra to turn back Westwards, giving a relative lull in the sustained strong SE winds on Wednesday. There could even be some sunshine too!

Conditions information and snow coverage will be old history by opening time on Wednesday and it remains to be seen what extent of digging out and storm recovery work will be required to get uplift going on Wednesday AM. In that regard with snow expected to fall below 400m, Glencoe has an advantage of not being dependent on high level road access and looks like it could be the safer bet for Wednesday. But we really need to see how things pan out over the next 36 hours!

As an indication of what lies further up and out at Glenshee, the SAIS measured a snow depth of 200cm in the small bowl at the top of the original Meall Odhar Run, a bit to skiers right of the Caenlochan Poma on Friday around 30m elevation below the Meall Odhar summit. On Saturday also on a West aspect, a depth of 220cm was recorded just below the summit of the Cairnwell.
All facilities at Nevis Range have been closed since Monday 5th January, including the base area. There is no lift assisted access to Aonach Mor for tourers or winter climbers at this time.

:: Glencoe Sledge Park

The Sledge Park at the Plateau Cafe is in excellent condition, full winter storm conditions are expected on Tuesday, check chairlift status AM and it will not be a day for small children! It is advisable to arrive before 2pm at the latest for sledging to get a decent amount of time on the hill. First chair up at 9am, last chair up at 3.45pm and last chair down at 4pm. Sledgers keep in mind, the Access Chair will be busier at the end of weekend days with snowsports underway.

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:: England Club Fields

All club fields are waiting for new snow to arrive.

For both Weardale and Allenheads, you need to join the club with a season pass, these are still available for both at this time.

Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.

Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads: http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .

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:: Mountain Weather

At 7pm in the West, the Glencoe SSC hut AWS at 850m was offline, last temp at 5.15pm was -2.1°c. At the Top of the Access (671m) it was -0.5°c at 7pm. At Base level (366m) it was +1.9°c.

The SAIS summit AWS on Aonach Mor was reporting -3.8°c. The Met Office station was reporting a South wind at 34 gusting 63mph. At the CIC Hut (680m) it was -0.2°c. At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +3.7°c.

In the East the Met Office CairnGorm Summit weather station reported -3.6°c, while the Heriot Watt Summit AWS reported a Hurricane Force South Easterly at a mean of 85 gusting 96mph. At Aviemore the temperature at 7pm was +5.2°c.

The Met Office Cairnwell AWS (3061ft /934m) reported -1.7°c with a South Easterly at a mean of 50 gusting 76mph.

Note: Met Office CairnGorm AWS suspected to be under reporting wind due to tower icing. The HW AWS is stored in a heated cylinder for 20 minutes before taking wind readings.

The Met Office Aonach Mor wind data should be treated with caution at present. Temperature being reported is consistently too low, verified by SAIS on site (it has also persistently been below the SAIS summit AWS for a while).

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:: Mountain Forecast Discussion

The Met Office has named Storm Chandra and there is a Yellow Warning for snow and rain for Tuesday, snow is expected to fall well below the lower slopes, indeed to or below the base of the Access Chair at Glencoe during Tuesday.

Storm Force winds will be widespread on upland areas, higher Munros and locations prone to topographical acceleration of SE winds will see Hurricane Force winds, with sustained speeds reaching 80mph plus. Dangerous gusts will occur on Northern / NW downslopes.

With persistent hill snow setting in, becoming heavy in the SE Highlands and an arc toward the SW Highlands, Blizzard conditions with persistent whiteout at height are expected. At Munro Level around -3°c, possibly a degree higher towards the West for a time.

Snow totals on the model output considering both the global models and the NMM and UKV mesoscale models range from around 18 to 25cm + for Glencoe, 10 to 25cm for the Lecht and CairnGorm and 20 to over 40cm for Glenshee. Both the Met Office UKV and the NMM mesoscale models show some mountains getting potentially 50cm!

Wednesday itself will start dry, with sunny periods under part cloudy skies, cloud perhaps almost clearing completely for a time towards the North and West, with a moderate SE wind, possibly becoming light and variable for a time in the SW Highlands, before starting to freshen later in the day. Around -2 to -1°c at Munro Level. Cloud will increase towards dusk, heralding more snow coming in from the SE for the rest of the week, and potentially into the weekend.

At this stage after Wednesday, Thursday looks the least wild day, but there is quite a bit of divergence between forecast models at short range. There could be a relative lull through the dawn period, perhaps into the morning on Friday, but then wind speeds are likely to pick up considerably.

To underline the uncertainty for the weekend, by Saturday afternoon, the Met Office MOGREPS ensemble has a 7°c spread for the Central Highlands, while the GFS manages to extend that spread of uncertainty to a whopping 14°c for the 850hpa height temperature!

The MOGREPS average was -3.8°c while the GEFS average was -5.9°c, the MOGREPS max projection was -1.3°c, while the Met Office UKV operational run was at -1.5°c, the lowest MOGREPS run was -8.4°c. The GFS Operational was at -7°c, while the lowest ensemble member was an exceptionally low -14°c.

With the Met Office model trending towards the top of the MOGREPS ensemble, the balance of probabilities is that it will be colder than the current Met Office projection of the FL being around 800m on Saturday. That uncertainty is also reflected in significantly divergent wind projections, ranging from a moderate SE wind, to Storm Force!

The other factor is, the colder the upper air and stronger the wind is, the more significant the convective precipitation potential is coming in off the North Sea on that SE wind, which is why we are seeing the Met Office going for snow showers in the East to flurries in the West, while some model runs are projecting heavy snowfall with 30 to 40cm falling in Severe Gale or Storm Force winds on Saturday!

On balance it looks like a fairly rough end to the week and into Saturday, with the freezing level staying at or below the lower slopes (apart from possibly rising temporarily on Wednesday). Only small change in the overall synoptic pattern will make a big difference in ultimate source of the air mass for the weekend and thus the temperature spread in the ensembles.

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:: Webcams and Weather Stations

Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is online (24/7).

GLENCOE: All mountain webcams online and the first updated images are from the Top of the Access Chair shortly after 7am, other cams come on by 8am. The mid mountain weather station wind direction is not working, other data valid.

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