Locked into strong SE winds. Precipitation totals will continue to mount in SE Highlands this coming week.
There has been considerable new snow in some locations, particularly at height, but the fluctuating freezing level yo-yoing around the lower slopes, sustained high winds and poor visibility are hampering both mountain operations in storm recovery work and at Glencoe where uplift has been open to the top over recent days, the visibility has limited options and driven many back down to the much thinner and in places baseless cover on the Plateau.
In terms of what was open Saturday, the best under ski conditions was on the upper mountain at Glencoe, but even mid mountain you would be lucky to see beyond your nose. With uplift limited to just the Carpark Tow and Coire Cas Tow (which had poor visibility and sustained drifting) on CairnGorm, many were lapping the Carpark Tow, which meant the thin cover overlying just a patchy base, much as on the Plateau and Mugs Alley at Glencoe did not make for a particularly pretty picture by the end of the day. Some further snow showers and drifting for both overnight may freshen these areas up again, but until the freezing level lowers slightly, you really want to be able to access higher stuff at Glencoe and CairnGorm.
Glencoe has had about 5 to 8cm further snowfall overnight. It is possible to ski the full on mountain vertical, apart from Old Mugs Alley from the Coire Pollach Tow, Mugs Alley from the top of the Cliffy and the Plateau area should really be considered as just for access. Conditions are best suited to more advanced skiers and boarders, happy to deal with the visibility to get the freshies on the upper mountain. Early intermediates who can confidently link snowplough turns should manage the Coire Pollach Tow ok and the beginners area by the magic carpet is ok. Sledge Park is in great condition thanks to machine made snow.
CairnGorm has seen between 4 and 7cm of new snow in the past 24 hours from radar data, but that does not really tell the whole story. Heavier snow on and to the southern areas around the core Plateau, has seen significantly more snow blow in on the sustained SE Gales than has actually fallen. The SAIS measured a depth of just over 1m of snow at the foot of the White Lady, where there was virtually nothing after the previous mild blip. The Funicular tunnel mouth was dug out on Saturday, but the SE wind is forecast to pick up overnight, so there could be further delays in the morning. If the temperature drops slightly, there could also be issues on the road. The fences on the Zig Zags have been catching a lot of snow, which is a good indication that the White Lady and Ciste Gully should be loading. The Gunbarrel is noticeably flatter than it was.
CairnGorm have sold out the pre allocated tickets for Sunday, but if it is possible to open additional surface uplift further up the mountain, some more tickets will be sold on site.
The Lecht got the Grouse and Eagle open during Saturday and the Buzzard should run on Sunday. Things are continuing to fill in again on the partial base, but the old snow is bullet proof, which has meant scouring has been a problem at the top of the hill. So while much of the main runs that are open should be fairly decent machine groomed fresh snow, icy patches possible at the top and may develop on the steeper pitches during the day, Still tickets available for Sunday at posting, and being further North, the Lecht may just clear up a bit on Sunday and will have less wind than the other Eastern areas.
Glenshee has seen the most new snow, but the FL has bounced around at a rather awkward height causing substantial icing issues on the lifts and Sunnyside needs to dry out and crunch up before machines can look to push out on the Eastern side of the road. Even within the ski area, radar data shows quite a marked gradient in snowfall from the NW corner towards Butcharts towards the furthest East point on Glas Maol. Over the past 24 hours around 14 to 22cm of new snow has fallen at height within the ski area, tending to that gradient. Munros to the East of Glas Maol have seen somewhere in the region of 26 to 30cm of new snowfall, this has been blowing towards the ski area on the strong SE to East wind.
As an indication of what lies further up and out, the SAIS measured a snow depth of 200cm in the small bowl at the top of the original Meall Odhar Run, a bit to skiers right of the Caenlochan Poma on Friday around 30m elevation below the Meall Odhar summit. On Saturday also on a West aspect, a depth of 220cm was recorded just below the summit of the Cairnwell. There is a lot of snow on parts of Western aspects, and North/South aligned fences on Carn Aosda are also benefiting, but snow cover is very far from uniform and there is going to be a huge amount of storm recovery work needed to push out.
At update the A939 Lecht Pass was closed for the night, while the A93 Cairnwell Pass was open. The freezing level is sitting about road level at the Eastern areas, and slightly above the West Coast access lifts top stations.
All facilities at Nevis Range have been closed since Monday 5th January, including the base area. There is no lift assisted access to Aonach Mor for tourers or winter climbers at this time.
The Sledge Park at the Plateau Cafe is in excellent condition, but overhead has been fairly rough in recent days. Visibility will start poor on Sunday and there will be a significant wind chill, dress appropriately! It is advisable to arrive before 2pm at the latest for sledging to get a decent amount of time on the hill. First chair up at 9am, last chair up at 3.45pm and last chair down at 4pm. Sledgers keep in mind, the Access Chair will be busier at the end of weekend days with snowsports underway.
All club fields are waiting for new snow to arrive.
For both Weardale and Allenheads, you need to join the club with a season pass, these are still available for both at this time.
Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.
Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads:
http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .
At 6pm in the West at the Glencoe SSC hut at 850m the mid mountain temperature was -0.6°c, no wind data due to anemometer icing. At the Top of the Access (671m) it was +0.5°c. At Base level (366m) it was +2.6°c.
The SAIS summit AWS on Aonach Mor was reporting -2.7°c. The Met Office station was reporting a South wind at 23 gusting 54mph. At the CIC Hut (680m) it was +0.8°c. At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +4.1°c.
In the East the CairnGorm Met Office Summit AWS reported -4.0°c with an Easterly at a mean of 43 gusting 61mph. At Aviemore the temperature at 6pm was +3.3°c.
The Met Office Cairnwell AWS (3061ft /934m) reported -1.8°c with an Easterly at a mean of 40 gusting 57theremph.
The prolonged Met Office Yellow Warning for rain in the SE Highlands remains in force. Further mountain snow is expected overnight and the SE wind is expected to strengthen overnight, peaking towards dawn before slowly easing. This could mean some delays getting things going on Sunday AM, check morning updates.
Remaining snow showers will tend to fade in the West Highlands, with some clearer spells developing into the afternoon, but these could be a bit hit or miss for a specific location depending on exact wind direction. On Saturday afternoon, the sun was out for spells towards the South of Rannoch Moor, while Meall a Bhuiridh after an initial tease that the hill fog was going to lift, became progressively more clagged in as the afternoon went on.
In the East snow will become showery to the North and West of the Cairngorms, while lighter in the South / SE Highlands than recent days it will probably continue to snow lightly for most of the day. Substantial drifting above the freezing level. Around -1 to -2°c at Munro Level. Wind ESE to SE post dawn could be around 50 to 60 gusting 80mph on and around the Cairngorm Plateau and through the Nevis Range mountains. More generally 40 gusting 60mph. Easting to generally 30 gusting 45mph, if direction stays SE speeds should be lower at Glencoe.
The coming week detail will depend on subtle changes to the wind direction and source. Severe cold spilling into North America has fired up the jet stream and spawned a monster low sub 945mb in the Western Atlantic, as this moves East, it will ramp up the pressure gradient as lows try to move in against the blocking high to our NE. At this stage it looks as if the trend will be upwards in wind speeds during the week, but there will be day to day variations with relative lulls and periods of markedly higher winds. Timing will then be critical to the impact for snowsports on whether we see any of the quieter periods during lift operating hours!
Monday will see SE winds widely 30 to 40 gusting 50mph, tending to be 25 to 30 gusting 40mph for Glencoe, but more likely 40 to 50 gusting 60mph Northern Cairngorms. The best of the day is likely to be post opening through to mid to late morning, after which wind speeds are expected to steadily increase. Add 10 to 15mph to the morning values mentioned above. At Munro Level trending slightly cooler than Sunday with -2 to -3°c at Munro Level. Some brightness between snow showers towards the North and West, while the SE Cairngorms is more overcast with steadier but light snowfall.
Tuesday looks likely to see a further increase in wind speed, though there is come uncertainty if markedly stronger winds will arrive during Tuesday or move in overnight for Wednesday where widely Storm Force ESE winds are anticipated. To emphasis the uncertainty caused by small shift in track / latitude of the low pressure systems approaching the block from the West, the GFS ensembles have a 6°c spread by early hours of Tuesday for the 850hpa height temperature and 10°c spread by Friday of next week (UK Met Office MOGREPS has around a 6°c spread by end of the week).
At this stage it looks as if precipitation intensity will trend upwards as the week goes on, along with the onshore wind strength. If colder air than currently present does dig in, that will also help fire up convection over the North Sea and further increase mountain snowfall potential. Again the SE Highlands look set to see the most precipitation, with current indications that the precipitation totals seen over the past 4 to 5 days will be repeated by the end of next weekend.
Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is online (24/7).
GLENCOE: All mountain webcams online and the first updated images are from the Top of the Access Chair shortly after 7am, other cams come on by 8am. The mid mountain weather station wind direction is not working, other data valid.