A very mild and wet spell associated with Storm Bram, heavy and persistent rain is falling in the West, and is spreading East where by dusk winds had reached Hurricane Force on CairnGorm. Bare areas were becoming visible on the Ciste Fairway and it is doubtful any complete runs will survive the night.
While there may be a period of wet snow at the highest levels on Wednesday, it now looks likely the freezing level will mostly remain above the tops over the next few days, so the chance of patching things back together in the short term does not look too hopeful. That said something of a partial base at least should survive now on the top slopes at CairnGorm.
The Funicular will not operate on Wednesday with Storm Force winds set to continue and neither the CairnGorm Funicular nor the Nevis Range Gondola were open at all on Tuesday with the rising SE winds. However something to note for the season, with SE wind, the Glencoe Access Chair managed nearly a full day.
Below, the Top Station things have filled in at the top of the middle runs down into Coire Cas, but once below the 3000ft mark that base is patchy.
Aside from a patchy base on the top third of the upper slopes in the West there is little snow left elsewhere across the snowsports areas. That is not an uncommon situation approaching mid December, very often early season snow in years that see a November start to lift served turns is largely lost again by mid December. Historically seeing an opening before New Year is very unusual at Glencoe, with the historical average season start being around mid January.
At Glencoe the Access Chairlift has reopened for winter and is now open daily (wind permitting). Not enough snow to push out an official sledge park yet, but there are snow factory piles to play on outside the Plateau Cafe, which will open for the season when either skiing or sledging starts, or for the school holidays. First chair up at 9am, last chair up at 3.30pm and last chair down at 4pm. White Corries Cafe at the base is open 8am to 4.30pm during early December.
The Nevis Range Gondola is open daily at present (wind permitting) with the last gondola up at 3.45pm and last down at 4pm. The Gondola will be closed from Monday 5th January, until early February.
At update both the A93 Cairnwell Pass and A939 Lecht Pass were open.
The three Pennine Clubfields all enjoyed a November start to their season, with Allenheads and Weardale notching up the first lift served UK snow turns of the season. There has not yet been sufficient snow at Raise in the Lake District and all clubfields are currently waiting for new snow.
For both Weardale and Allenheads, you need to join the club with a season pass, these are still available for both at this time.
Please check club access rules / availability if not a club member / pass holder.
Weardale: https: //skiweardale.com/ .
Allenheads:
http://ski-allenheads.co.uk/ .
Yad Moss: https: //yadmoss.co.uk/ .
Raise: https: //www.ldscsnowski.co.uk/ .
At 6pm in the West at the Glencoe SSC hut at 850m the mid mountain temperature was +6.6°c, with a South wind at a mean of 27 gusting 66mph. At the base it was +9.8°c at 6pm.
The SAIS summit AWS on Aonach Mor was reporting +4.4°c. The Met Office station was reporting a South wind at 34 gusting 74mph. The Tower 17 AWS on the Gondola was offline due to a flat battery and it is unlikely to recharge over the next few days! At Tulloch Station (237m) the temperature was +11.5°c.
In the East the CairnGorm the Met Office Summit AWS reported +4.3°c with a Hurricane Force South South Easterly at a mean of 85 gusting 112mph. Aviemore was at +13°c at 6pm.
The Met Office Cairnwell AWS (3061ft /934m) reported +5.7°c with a Southerly wind at a mean of 70 gusting 96 mph.
Storm Bram will give hours of heavy rain and Storm to Hurricane Force winds on Highland mountains overnight, Munros in the NW Highlands, North of Loch Hourn could see sustained winds in excess of 110 to 120mph with gusts pushing towards 130 to 140mph for several hours as the centre of Storm Bram makes its closest pass!
By Wednesday morning, the SW winds are expected to moderate to Storm Force with upland areas widely seeing 60 to 70mph mean winds through much of daylight hours, but on and near the Cairngorm Plateau speeds could remain 80 gusting over 100mph for several hours post dawn. By dawn the freezing level is expected to fall back onto the Munros with 0 to 1°c at Munro Level, but rising to +2 to +3°c again by later on Wednesday afternoon. Very poor overhead with a changing wintry mix as the freezing level fluctuates, widely poor visibility in the West, but precipitation becoming more showery in the East. The further North and/or East one is in the Cairngorms the more chance of some brighter spells.
From the snowsports prospective, sustained high wind speeds mean almost certainly no uplift on Thursday even if anything holds together in the Top Basin on CairnGorm. Thursday itself should be a dry start in the East Highlands, but drizzly showers will set in as the Munro Level temperature will nudge up to 4°c. Storm Force winds continuing, around 50 to 60mph South Westerly with gusts to 80mph.
A transient ridge looks to give clearer overhead and brief respite from the high winds on Friday, with around 0 to 1°c at Munro Level, but wind speeds may already be freshening before dusk with the best of the weather currently looking to be post dawn.
Saturday looks likely to see another deepening area of low pressure move past the NW Highlands, but detail / timing uncertain. On balance a very poor day likely on West Coast mountains with heavy rain setting in if not during the night then fairly soon on Saturday morning and a return to Storm Force winds likely. Munro Level temperature potentially peaking at +5°c in the West to +7°c in the East.
However there is a 9°c spread in ensemble members for 850hpa temperature both Saturday and Sunday across the Central Highlands. Most of the spread is due to timing uncertainty rather than whether the spikes in temperature occur or not, but there is quite a bit of variability in the duration and extent of exposure to the warm sector from the weekend low.
There is potential for another couple of notably deep depressions the following week showing up across ensembles and various forecast models. The balance of the model output though points towards a flatter, but cooler zonal flow in the medium term. If we can actually get there it is potentially a good outcome for the mountains from a snowsports perspective, particularly the West Coast, with copious amounts of precipitation and just cold enough for snow on the mountains. It will however be utterly horrid at low levels if that is the outcome, but that might be the price to be paid for getting a base down on the mountains!
Lowther Hill: Leadhills webcam is online (24/7).
GLENCOE: All mountain webcams online and the first updated images will be shortly after 8am. The sledge park camera is online 24/7. Wind speed is available from base and mid mountain, temperature / humidity are also available from the top of the Access Chair. Summit Power and Top of the Access weather data back online Tuesday PM.